Soundings

Fixed Income

Drawing from the nautical practice of measuring depth, Soundings explores the underlying forces, risks, and opportunities beneath the market's surface..

Time and Tide Pods

October 2026

In August, we laid out the pressures weighing on the dollar: inflation running above target, skepticism about policy, widening deficits, and a record pace of Treasury issuance. None of that has gone away. And yet the greenback is up this year. The reason may have less to do with American strength than with how the rest of the developed world looks by comparison.

Data Center Blues

October 2026

Hyperscalers are borrowing like never before, towns are saying no, and Anthropic's prospectus shows $518b in commitments with a short leash as the AI build-out is running into the limits of the physical world.

Hold Me Now

August 2026

Every road this week led back to the bond market — rates climbing, the Fed quiet, the Treasury leaning on buybacks, and gold, crypto, and the dollar all telling on the debasement trade. Should you still own bonds? Do you need inflation protection?

Not Yet

June 2026

Private credit gating raises a familiar question: are we out of the woods, or just getting started?

Las Cucarachas

February 2026

Jamie Dimon's "cockroach" comment reignites debate over hidden risk in private credit.

Uncorrelated

January 2026

Gold's best month in 40 years ends in a sharp reversal. What investors do next depends on why they bought it.

The Rising Tide

November 2025

Bonds are having their best year since 2020 — but the reward for active risk-taking has rarely been thinner.

Calling a Spade a Spade

September 2025

Why Microsoft can borrow more cheaply than the U.S. government — and what that says about credit and trust.

What happens after a national mid-life crisis?

September 2025

If the U.S. matures like Europe or Japan, here's what a 50-year portfolio might hold.