Here at Tide Cycle, we are big proponents of diversified portfolios, uncorrelated strategies, and casting a wide net for appropriate solutions. While old fashioned stocks, bonds, and cash are outstanding building blocks for most investors, providing liquidity, income, and ample data to monitor risks and performance, we also recognize the value of newer and more complex portfolio options. That said, we tend to focus first on the questions that haven’t been suitably answered to provide us comfort before investing. This comes from decades of experience, first-hand scar tissue, discipline, and genuine intellectual curiosity.

Which brings us to today’s headline in the private credit world. Private credit has ballooned in size and popularity in recent years. It meets a need for another source of capital for businesses. It provides a diversifying income stream for investors seeking better yields than those offered in the investment grade and high yield bond markets. It represents a huge swath of quality structures, tranches, and senior/subordinate relationships. Unfortunately, it remains untested at today’s size in an environment with persistently higher base rates and lender/borrower interactions that may not be as durable as expected.

Blackstone limited redemptions from its flagship private credit fund in the second quarter after fully honoring significant redemption requests in the first quarter. News of this gating prompted a natural “compare and contrast” to the other big players in this space like Apollo, Ares, KKR and Blue Owl. Each one, a slightly different tune, yet the sounds are similar. As we observe these developments, we listen carefully to other investors talk about canvassing the asset class, looking for those managers that have held up relatively well, appear to be in better position, or somehow have a process that will allow them to avoid problems. While there will undoubtedly be winners and losers over time, our view is that it may be premature to declare that we’re out of the woods, and investors should proceed with caution.

ARCHIVE
Decoupling, June 1, 2026
Magnifica Humanitas, May 25, 2026
Smooth Seas, May 18, 2026
The Fed, May 13, 2026
Planes. Trains and Automobiles, May 4, 2026
Canaries, April 20, 2026
Integrity, April 13, 2026
Liquidity, April 6, 2026
Democratizing Private Equity – Part II, March 23, 2026
Democratizing Private Equity – Part I, March 16, 2026
Watching the Lights Turn Red, March 9, 2026
Watching the Lights Turn Green, March 2, 2026
Las Cucarachas, February 9, 2026
Gold Math, February 2, 2026
Uncorrelated, January 26, 2026
A Contrarian Trade? January 20, 2026
Woe is Me, January 12, 2026
Investing for Impact, January 5, 2026
2025

Tide Cycle Resources (Tide Cycle) is an investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. A copy of Tide Cycle’s Forms ADV Part 2 and Form CRS are available without charge upon request. The opinions expressed are those of Tide Cycle. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. This should not be taken as specific investment advice. We recommend consulting an investment/tax professional before making financial decisions based on any information provided.

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